Swine Flu what are the risks?
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Article dated the 19th of July 2009
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Why is swine flu being reported everywhere again?
Recorded cases and deaths have risen and although difficult to count , it is estimated by the health protection agency that in the week beginning 16th July there were over 55,000 new cases. Since the start of the outbreak concern died down however there has been a dramatic increase in the number of reported cases up from 15 per 100,000 to 40. The increase in cases has also meant that there is more information about how the virus is spreading , how badly it is affecting people and who seems to be most at risk. This new analysis of the pandemic has increased reports in the media and also the public's fears but how scared should you be? This article has been designed to try and give the current facts and a balanced overview of the risks .
How many cases and deaths from swine flu are there in the UK?
There have now been 30 reported deaths from swine flu although the numbers are still small it is an increase of 40% in just under a week. By mid July 2009 over 650 people had been hospitalised in the UK and over 50 in critical care however most cases have been with patients with existing health problems. Despite recent deaths of apparently healthy people (such as 6 year old girl from North West London) there is as yet no indication that the virus is becoming a killer. The death rates are still comparable to normal seasonal flu and even with these outbreaks healthy people can die. With that said, recent research has shown that swine flu does penetrate more deeply into the chest and lungs than other strains of flu.
Who is most likely to bit at risk?
Rates of infection have been higher amongst the young 5-14 year olds followed by 1-4 year olds and more women have sought medical attention than men. However it is certain that many people are coping with infection on their own and that official figures of confirmed cases are just the tip of the iceberg. So it is unclear if the high volumes of reported cases in children are due to; the young being particularly vulnerable, higher levels of exposure in schools, or due to anxious parents reporting their child's illness. What is undisputed is that pregnant women, those that are obese and people with hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, and lung obstructions are at higher risk. for these people treatment with and antiviral such as Tamiflu is often advised, however it is often difficult to get hold of the treatment for more information see our buying tamiflu advice page.
What are the most likely projections for this Pandemic?
Certainly the number of cases will increase. Rises will be more rapid in urban areas and should reach peak levels when schools return in September and October. Last week the government came out with ‘worst case scenario' figures that up to 65,000 people could die based on 30% of the population becoming infected and a mortality rate of 0.35%. From the current nature of the swine flu and the statistics on this pandemic these figures look unlikely. Interestingly enough, swine flu has now displaced most other flu. In June, 98% of flu cases in the USA were confirmed swine flu H1N1 so if you get the flu now chances are that it's the swine flu variety.
Latest information regarding the new swine flu vaccine 30/09/2009
The new swine flu vaccine, approved September 25th is the vaccine the answer.
For know what is the better treatment for swine check the information on. tamiflu vs the vaccine and also other traditional flu remedies.
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